19 October 2000

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR AREAS WITHIN NORTHERN IRELAND

This release contains population projections for each of Northern Ireland’s 26 Local Government Districts, four Health and Social Services Boards, five Education and Library Boards and five NUTS III areas based on a review of fertility, mortality and migration trends.

These projections, based on the 1998 mid-year population estimates, replace the 1996 based projections. They have been constrained to the 1998 based population projections for Northern Ireland published by the Government Actuary’s Department (London) in November 1999.

Age and sex distributions are available for the 26 Local Government Districts, four Health and Social Services Boards, five Education and Library Boards and five NUTS III areas up to 2013. A table of summary information is provided.

 

KEY RESULTS

Over the period 1998 to 2013 the population in Northern Ireland, the Local Government Districts, Health and Social Services Boards, Education Boards and NUTS III areas is projected to change as follows:

 

Considering all ages, between 1998 and 2013 -

• the total population in Northern Ireland is projected to increase by 6 per cent.
• the LGD with the greatest projected population growth is Derry (14 per cent) while the Belfast population is projected to decrease by 5 per cent
• the Health Board with the greatest projected increase is the Western board (11 per cent) while the Eastern board is projected to increase by just 2 per cent.

 

Considering children (those aged under 16), between 1998 and 2013 -

• the number of children in Northern Ireland is projected to fall by 13 per cent.
• the largest decrease in the number of children is projected to be in Cookstown (26 per cent) while the sole LGD where the number of children is projected to increase is Antrim (1 per cent).
• the projected decreases in the number of children range from the Western Health Board (8 per cent) to the Eastern Health Board (17 per cent).
• the largest decrease in the number of children among the Education and Library boards is projected to be in the Belfast Board (23 per cent) while the Western Board is projected to increase by 8 per cent.

 

Considering the working age population, between 1998 and 2013 -

• the number of people of working age population in Northern Ireland is projected to increase by 8 per cent.
• the largest increase in the number of people of working age is projected to be in Derry (18 per cent), while in North Down and Belfast the working-age populations are projected to increase by just 1 per cent
• the Western Board (15 per cent) is projected to have the greatest increase of working age population among the Health Boards and the Eastern Health Board the smallest increase (5 per cent).

 

Considering those of pensionable age, between 1998 and 2013 -

• the number of pensioners in Northern Ireland is projected to increase by 24 per cent.
• the greatest projected increase in the number of pensioners is in Antrim LGD (51 per cent), while the number of people of pensionable age in Belfast LGD is projected to decrease slightly (by under 1 per cent).
• the Western and Northern Health Board populations of pension age are both projected to increase by 31 per cent while the Eastern Health Board population is projected to increase by only 15 per cent.

 

Chart 1: Percentage population change, 1998 to 2013

 

A NATIONAL STATISTICS PUBLICATION

 

NOTES TO EDITORS

• The population projections are based on trends of fertility, mortality and migration and are not policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. Details of the methods used will be given in a forthcoming NISRA Occasional Paper number 14 "Population Projections for areas within Northern Ireland", available from:

Publications

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

McAuley House

2-14 Castle Street

Belfast

BT1 1SA

Telephone : 028 9034 8114    Fax : 028 9034 8117

 

• Other demographic information is available on the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency's web site at www.nisra.gov.uk\dmb\datavalt.htm
• Corresponding information for England and Wales is published by the Office for National Statistics in London. Corresponding information for Scotland is published by the General Register Office for Scotland in Edinburgh.
• Any queries regarding the method used or the results can be obtained from :

Demography and Methodology Branch

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

McAuley House

2-14 Castle Street

Belfast

BT1 1SA

Telephone : 028 9034 8132    Fax : 028 9034 8134

Email: dmb.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk

 

Further information can be obtained from :

The Press Office

Department of Finance and Personnel

Rathgael House

Balloo Road

BANGOR

BT19 7NA

 

Telephone : 028 9185 8175   Fax : 028 9185 8051

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